Becky Lawlor, Founder and Chief Research and Content Officer of Redpoint; Drew Neisser, CEO at CMO Huddles; and Curtis Sparrer, Principal of Bospar are contributors to a report titled “Underground Recession: The Hidden Strain on B2B CMOs.” The report specifies something unusual: an underground recession in the U.S. marketing/PR industry. 

Michelle McIntyre, President of Michelle McIntyre Communications and PRSA-Silicon Valley Vice President of Marketing, Bay Area resident, reminds us, “We don’t know we are in a recession until we are well into it.” 

Could an underground recession be plausible? 

“Drew Neisser and Becky Lawlor are highly respected businesspeople as is Curtis Bospar, a former journalist. They’ve made an unusual declaration about an underground recession. However, it could be correct. Many of my PR friends who have spent longer periods looking for jobs lately would anecdotally agree with them,” McIntyre says. 

Among the figures in the report is a statistic that, of the 121 CMOs/heads of marketing who were asked, 69% believe their industry is in a recession (Bospar).

It is worth noting that Mary C. Daly, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, a woman highly regarded in her economic reporting, did not mention an underground recession in microindustries such as PR in her presentation on June 24, 2024. She said the overall U.S. economy is in a “better place” than the last three years.

Additionally, according to a 2024-2030 forecast, the worldwide “Public Relations Market is forecast to reach $130.5 billion by 2025, at a CAGR of 10.50% during 2020-2025.” (IndustryArc). This statistic indicates a growing PR industry.

Nevertheless, Curtis Sparrer, California-based, counters that the growth of the PR industry “depends on the sector.” He says, “Bospar’s health and pharma practice is growing because a lot of those companies are looking for the same sort of PR discipline that people who've worked in tech can apply to other fields.”

Speaking of discipline, Erin McCabe, Senior Vice President of OpenText and Bay Area resident, shares the following insight: “Today, PR is not just press release distribution and media outreach. It has grown to be more Integrated Communications, inclusive of employee communications, social media, influencer relations, and even dynamic content creation.” 

PR professionals need to keep up. 

A 2024 “State of PR” Muck Rack report brings stunning insights into the fold, two related to McCabe’s quote. Based on a survey of 1,116 PR professionals from April 4 to May 10, 2024 primarily (75%) from the U.S.:

• When asked, “What types of work do you rely on PR agencies for?”, respondents replied “Pitching, Research/building media lists, Project-based work (i.e. product launches), Crisis communications, Events, Content writing (i.e. blogs), Internal media connections, Navigating culturally sensitive situations, Social media,” and more (Page 17). This corroborates McCabe’s wisdom: PR professionals have to meet the demand for many skills, no longer solely media relations and press release distribution.
• Adding on, “72% of respondents said that the relationship between PR and marketing will be more important in the next 5 years” (Page 48). PR professionals need to understand the relationship between PR and marketing, further adding to McCabe’s insight.
• Likewise, “most PR pros expect their budgets to stay the same or rise over the next year” (Page 4). This data demonstrates that the PR industry is advancing.

If you’re wondering about the security of your PR role, you can rest assured that the economy and industry are moderately growing. However, remember that there may be an underground recession that could be validating. This means that if you get laid off or if you have trouble finding a new role, perhaps you are not alone. However, as Erin McCabe suggests and Muck Rack corroborates, you can safeguard your marketability in the field by leaning into the trend of expanding your PR professional repertoire. Muck Rack offers training and webinars to meet the demand for top-notch PR skills. 

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‍Peri Plantenberg, a member of PRSA Silicon Valley's Marketing Team, is a UC Berkeley student and a Community Engagement intern at the City of Sunnyvale’s Environmental Services Department. Before that, Peri co-led the nonprofit Silicon Valley Youth Climate Action.

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